Hey, Let's Start a Revolution!
We’re at the edge of a new industrial revolution and I am unspeakably excited about it and all the opportunities and possibilities it will bring.
And, I’m already frustrated and impatient with the whole thing.
What revolution, you may ask? Check out the stuff in the box there…This revolution, once it’s done, could completely change manufacturing, and the world as we know it, by creating dynamic, reliable, responsive systems to secure and manage resources, build, and reconfigure manufacturing lines, and democratize industrial-scale production. That’s a lot, I know, but seriously - the tools and systems we use to manufacture everything could be quickly scalable, stable and self sustaining, and accessible to nearly everyone.
I know that sounds a bit far out there, maybe even utopian, but I think it’s possible if we do the fourth industrial revolution right.
Done right, we could create:
Autonomous factories that engage with human operators and managers, who can interface with production machinery remotely
Production lines that self-heal when something breaks, build replacement components, and automatically optimize for your chosen criterion
Rapidly reconfigurable production lines that fix problems, work around obstacles, create bespoke products, manage waste, recycle materials, and reload raw materials without losing hours of production time
Manufacturing chains so efficient they can be used to build or disassemble and capture resources from used goods and recyclables
Flexible assembly lines and rapid retooling for quick prototyping and limited production runs
The manufacturer of the future will be empowered to solve supply logistics, operations, and production issues preemptively. Their systems will dynamically respond to real-world conditions and optimize production flows, including materials, assembly line break/fix, and distribution.
With enough data, the system can predict and plan for the inevitable machine component failures, from a shred of fluff stuck on a lens to a broken robot joint, and create a plan to preempt the line stoppage by proactively acquiring needed parts, or re-work the line to minimize the impact until the defect is fixed.
Line operators will set optimization goals for key elements and the integrated system could figure out how to deliver. With a modular, interchangeable, smart factory using the best IIoT has to offer, your production line would be transformed into a dynamic organism – the whole would be so much more than the sum of its parts.
It could be amazing and revolutionary for how we conceive of mass production.
Unfortunately, what we’re doing right now with the Industry 4.0 technologies isn’t this. The current fragmented approach is not driving towards the revolution that will achieve the true potential of these possibilities – or if it will, it won’t be any time soon.
“Make no mistake: the manufacturing sector is in the midst of a sea change, though its final outcome is far from certain.”– Ian Wright, What is Industry 4.0 Anyway?, Engineering.com
Piecemeal does not make a revolution.
What we’re seeing right now shouldn’t even be called a revolution since it’s not breaking enough ground to fundamentally change anything. It’s more like Industry 3.5, where people are trying to push computerization further to get the big data and analytics working, but without deep integration the information is barely actionable. It ends up being more and fancier versions of what we already have.
Here’s how Industry 3.5 is going so far…Automation and integration come online and then Tesla’s factory can’t meet demand, gets shut down and folks start bashing the whole concept even though their human-powered production lines couldn’t keep up either.
Everyone gets excited about small-scale bespoke manufacturing and industrial-scale 3D-printing changing the world, and then there’s a months-long shortage of IV bags because a hurricane wipes out a factory, but 3D printers can’t make sterile IV bags.
We see fits and starts, a couple steps forward and a huge leap back – Industry 4.0 is barely limping forward.
Where do we Sign Up?
If we want to make Industry 4.0 revolutionary it will take stripping mass production down to the basics – all the way back to the first industrial revolution – and building it back up into what it should and can be: flexible, responsive, reliable, practical, connected, cost effective, dynamic, and democratic.
If we can change our mindset, abandon the incremental, piecemeal approach, work together to bring all these technologies along in parallel, and write the software that bridges the gaps to integrate the system, then Industry 4.0 will really begin.
It’s going to take a combination of a leap of faith and a giant step backward – back some 200 years of “progress” – to reach the optimal result.
And, if we do it right, the fourth industrial revolution will be the last.
Why Should We Care?
Well, unless you’re 3D printing everything you use, or making things by hand from wood you chopped down, this stuff affects your life more than you realize.
We’re at the point where most of the things we consume are designed and made by a relatively small group of very big companies. Yes, we have Kickstarter and Indiegogo, and other micro-lending sites for small inventors – but only a tiny percent of the consumer products on those sites are ever successful or widely available.
A lot of inventions that would make the world better never see the light of day. Some are bought by big manufacturers with the sole intent of killing competition. Bagless vacuums almost never existed because vacuum manufacturers made so much money selling bags and filters they tried to kill the new invention. What else have we never been able to see because a company with deep pockets decided we shouldn’t have it?
Making Industry 4.0 work is going to take more than the big manufacturers because they’re only motivated to use the bits and pieces of new tech that drive the right kind of efficiency – to speed up production, cut labor, and save money – to deliver more value for their leadership or shareholders, they stick with 3.0, or maybe go to 3.5 if you really push them.
The truth is, big manufacturers aren’t motivated to push Industry 4.0 as far as it can go. The current system works too well for them. They don’t have a good reason to go beyond what will streamline their own production and put more cash in their pocket because this system keeps them firmly in control of large-scale production and shuts out up-starts and new inventions that might challenge their profitable status quo.
Who Then?
Kicking Industry 4.0 into gear and making it work right is going to take vision, leadership, and the will to apply the resources and time required to develop and fully integrate all these technologies. Without all this, if we continue the piecemeal approach, this revolution is going to be a dud and we’ll just have a slightly better version of what we’ve got now.
It takes time to change the world – and that’s what we could do here – to open the door for every inventor with a good idea to access sustainable, efficient mass production.
“The chain of creation is many links long, and every link – each one a person creating – is essential.”– Kevin Ashton, How to Fly a Horse
The first three industrial revolutions were about narrowing the means of production to drive efficiency and control – and they worked for some. But it’s gotten more concentrated than we could have imagined and now we need to spread it out again.
We need to drive the fourth industrial revolution to access the true potential of humans – to get the most out of our inventive, creative, driven species and empower them to solve the hard problems we face.
But, What About Us?
If you’re thinking right now, but wait Simon, won’t that just take away more manufacturing jobs? Well, yes, and no.We’re experiencing an actual labor shortage for all kinds of workers, but especially for skilled assembly and manufacturing workers. The automation that’s currently the centerpiece of Industry 3.5 is doing just fine eliminating the old, unskilled production line jobs without getting all the advantages 4.0 could bring.
Yes, the factories of a successful fourth industrial revolution would require fewer people standing on a production line hand assembling widgets, but there aren’t enough of those people anyway. Lack of skilled assembly workers was one of the factors that pressured Tesla into rushing through their production line automation in the first place.
“How is it we allow the majority of the people on the planet to do work that is monotonous, meaningless, and soul deadening?”– Barry Schwartz, The Meaning of Work, NPR Ted Radio Hour
Instead of standing on a line building cogs, those workers will be trained to use AR tools to fix machines, help replace components the system cannot self-heal, reconfigure production lines, and any number of other activities required to keep the production line of the future up and running. Some of those workers will be able to introduce their own innovation and apply more than the mundane, mindless, physical input required since the first industrial revolution, they can create.
Ultimately, Industry 4.0 will not eliminate workers or jobs. It will rip the old system down and rebuild it with humans in a more dynamic position – where they are valued, engaged, and worth more than a spare part.
Let’s Start a Revolution
All the challenges of getting Industry 4.0 up and working are solvable right now.
We need to get the resources, the will, the vision, the leadership, and the brainpower working together to make this happen. We only have to do it once.
From that starting point, every Industry 4.0 installation would work to optimize the system, create new iterations, and push incremental improvements.
The bottom line is this - we need to stop this piecemeal stuff and focus to get this revolution going.
Who’s with me?
